24 Hour Rule: Providence - 85 Villanova - 72
The trio of Croswell, Hopkins and Locke combine to overmatch the Wildcats
Game Recap:
12,000+ Providence fans in attendance at a sold out Amica Mutual Pavilion on a Saturday afternoon. The thick of a Big East regular season title race. Battling for seeding at MSG and in the NCAA tournament. Yeah, it’s going to take a team a lot better than (this year’s) Villanova to knock off the Friars in that situation. It wasn’t a perfect afternoon, but the first 12 minutes of the first half were. Friars jumped out to a 14 point lead led by Bryce Hopkins and Noah Locke, and for a minute it looked like this rivalry might finally see a blowout.
Unfortunately some less-than-ideal defensive breakdowns and questionable shot selection led to a 10-0 Villanova run, and the Friars headed into halftime with a 5 point lead that very easily could’ve been 10.
The second half was another Jekyll-and-Hyde performance from the Friars, who saw their lead expand to double digits before Villanova briefly took the lead with ~8 minutes left. I was never too concerned about the Friars giving this one away, Villanova just does not execute to the level they did under Jay Wright, but the Friars still managed to make it interesting down the stretch. Credit to Devin Carter, Locke and Hopkins who put this one away in the final 4 minutes to extend the Providence home winning streak to 17 straight, and 36 of their last 37. Incredible.
Team Analysis:
The Good:
Rebounding / Points in the Paint: Providence dominated Villanova inside on Saturday. Simply dominated. The Friars out-rebounded the Wildcats 36 - 29 and had a points in the paint advantage of 36 - 28. For a team without a traditional center and 2 starting guards on the smaller end, that’s pretty impressive. Credit to Hopkins and Croswell who made a concerted effort to impose their will against Eric Dixon, Brandon Slater, and Cam Whitmore.
Limiting the Top of the Scouting Report: Cam Whitmore is going to be a top 10 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. On raw talent alone, he’s probably a top 3 player in the Big East. He is going to play in the league for a long time. But he’s a freshmen, and he’s certainly susceptible to a bad game. Providence forced a bad game onto Whitmore on Saturday afternoon, limiting the future lottery pick to 7 points (3-8 FG, 0-5 3PT, 1-2 FT), 1 rebound, 1 steal and 1 turnover. Carter, Hopkins and Breed drew the Whitmore assignment most of the afternoon and all 3 of them did a commendable job.
The Bad:
Free Throws: On the surface the 24-32 (75%) number from the line isn’t that bad, but it’s also not that good. However, when you peel back the curtain though and realize that Providence scores a ridiculous 21.4% of their points on the season from the free throw line, every opportunity is magnified. On the season, Providence is 66th in the country from the line at 74.59%, right between our friends from the south UConn, and Michigan State.
Again, 75% from the line on the year is not bad, but this is a team that puts an outsized emphasis on getting to the line, and as a result there is an outsized amount of importance on converting those attempts. Maybe I’m just overreacting because the #1 FT shooting team in the country was occupying the visitors bench on Saturday. Alas..
Killer Instinct: Providence committed 11 turnovers, with the main culprits being Croswell (4), Hopkins (3) and Carter (2). Fine. When the ball is constantly in your hands, you’re going to have more turnovers. No big deal. But it wasn’t just the turnovers but more the timing of when said turnovers occurred, the poor shot selection and the general lack of killer instinct, especially in the first half when Villanova was begging to get blown out:
Up 13, 6:52 left in the first half, on a fast break Carter makes an ill-advised cross court bounce pass, Villanova’s Brandon Slater steals it, and Eric Dixon ends up converting a 3 point play, now up 10. Should’ve been up 15.
Up 12, 5:27 left, Noah Locke fadeaway 3. Come down on defense, give up a Justin Moore jumper, up 10. Hopkins missed contested 3, offensive rebound, Bynum missed off balance fadeaway jump shot. Bynum gets blown by on defense and ends up fouling Mark Armstrong for 2 FT’s. Up 8.
This version of Villanova is not talented or well coached enough to make Providence pay for these mental lapses but I promise you their will be a team in March that is.
Player Breakdown:
Editor’s Note: Players need to log more than 10 minutes to qualify for the breakdown section - vs Villanova this disqualifies Jayden Pierre (7 mins) and Clifton Moore (7 mins):
Bryce Hopkins: It’s pretty incredible to witness the things Bryce can do on the basketball court. But at this point we’re well versed on Bryce’s offensive skill set.
High level, 3-level scorer. The defensive end is where Hopkins has taken a big step forward in the last 2 games. He has the physical tools to do it, but it seems the buy in on that end has increased as the calendar has turned to February. Realistically, I think some of the feedback from executives / scouts in the NBA has been a driver of Hopkins renewed focus on the defensive end as well. The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie released his latest Mock Draft 3.0 last week and has Hopkins going near the end of the second round at #52. If the pay wall is blocking your access or you don’t feel like scrolling through the article I’ll save you some time, the consensus at the next level is that Hopkins needs to improve his defense (or at least show that he can consistently defend) in order to improve his draft stock. There will be plenty of time to dissect all things Bryce and NBA once the season ends, and believe me I will, but for now let’s just enjoy Cooley and Hopkins making light of his recent defensive prowess.
Devin Carter: The fact that Carter struggled all night with foul trouble, 12 points (4-6 FG, 1-2 3PT, 3-5 FT), 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and still had the biggest shot of the game just speaks to his mental toughness.
I know what you’re thinking. Divine Friars, isn’t the 3 Carter hit from the parking lot the biggest shot of the game? No. The above clip is just an insane display of athleticism at a point in the game where Villanova had all the momentum, and a legitimate chance to steal the game. The obscene 3 Carter hit requires 1% level confidence, and talent, but the breathing room that step back jumper gave the Friars makes it, for me, the shot of the game. But I’ll allow that Carter’s 30 footer was so brilliant we all need to see it one more time.
Ed Croswell: How many times can you say a player is underrated before he’s no longer underrated? Well, we’re going to find out because after another superb 21 point (7-9 FG, 7-9FT) 10 rebound performance, I genuinely think Croswell has a case for 2nd Team All Big East, and is the second most important player on this roster. Credit to the Providence Journal’s Bill Koch who was the first to point out this comparison but here’s how Croswell’s season has compared to the numbers Nate Watson put up last year:
Watson (33 Games) - 13.3 pts, 5.2 rpg, 54.8% FG, 58.3% FT, 10 steals, 24 blocks
Croswell (27 games) - 13.1 pts, 7.3 rpg, 62.1% FG, 66.4% FT, 33 steals, 26 blocks
You tell me.
Another shoutout to Croswell for scoring his 1,000th career point on Saturday (586 of which have come in a Providence jersey). He’s been an absolute treat to watch this season and his development since his first season in Friartown has been simply incredible.
Jared Bynum: Bynum played fine. 9 points (3-8 FG, 1-2 3 PT, 2-2 FT), 2 rebounds, 2 assists. About what we should all expect on the offensive end. On the defensive end he remains a liability and for the second game in a row repeatedly got picked on by the oppositions guards. He’s 5’10. Justin Moore is 6’5. It is what it is. Bynum’s struggles as a defender have been well documented. On the positive side, Bynum’s assist to turnover ratio on the season is now an insanely impressive 3:1 (only Marquette’s Tyler Kolek has a better A:T) and he remains the best, and the player I trust the most, from the free throw line (83.6%, 51-61).
Noah Locke: I’ve been very critical of Locke’s shot selection up to this point in the year. The last two games, have been a revelation. Much more of this…
… and far less of the jack-it-up mindset that plagued some of Locke’s earlier season performances. Locke was brilliant against Villanova with an efficient 16 points (6-9 FG, 2-4 3PT, 2-2 FT), 1 assist and 1 rebound. Listen, if Locke is scoring that efficiently AND playing defense, I don’t care if he doesn’t get another assist or rebound the rest of the season.
Focus on the attempts here. 156 attempts from beyond the arc and 94 2’s. That’s a good ratio for Noah Locke. As we head into March, I’d like to see him with a few more attempts at the rim, and significantly more corner 3’s. Those are the best ways to get Locke rolling, and when he’s playing inside out and finding a rhythm, Providence can beat any team in the country.
Alyn Breed: I thought Breed gave great, if unglamorous minutes on Saturday afternoon.
The above possession shows up as nothing in the box score. Zero. Not a steal, not a block, nada. But it’s defensive efforts like these that demonstrate that unheralded value of Alyn Breed.
Corey Floyd Jr: Very similar to the performance of Alyn Breed, CFJ brought his usual defensive toughness when that’s what the game demanded. There’s enough scoring on this team, CFJ does not need to do that. If he can hit the occasional corner 3 all the better but CFJ’s job for the remainder of this season is defense and rebounding. He’s did that extremely well against Villanova, 1 point (0-3 FG, 1-2 FT), 3 rebounds, 2 assists in a season high 20 minutes. More importantly, CFJ seems to have locked in the 7th man on this role, ahead of freshmen Jayden Pierre and the oft disappointing Clifton Moore. I mentioned a few weeks back about how Cooley had made a point of developing his bench during the lighter part of the January schedule (DePaul / Butler). Knowing he can’t realistically make a deep March run with 6 guys, it was imperative to at LEAST find 7 that he trusts. CFJ has seemingly taken that trust run with it.
Last Call: Top 40 2024 recruit Kur Teng was on an official visit to Providence this weekend and took in the Villanova game from behind the Friars bench. I’d say he saw a pretty good glimpse into the future of what his Providence career could look like. I’ll have a full breakdown of Teng’s game and what he could bring to the Providence program but suffice to say, this would be one of the biggest recruiting gets of Ed Cooley’s tenure. Teng is a certified bucket getter who’s game reminds of quite a bit of Providence favorite son, David Duke Jr.
He also got to live the dream of many in Friartown, a Sunday morning breakfast in downtown Providence with Cooley assistant coach Brian Blaney! What I’d give to know the pitch that was being given at that table…