Bracketology 101
What Providence needs to do to hear their name called on Selection Sunday
As the calendar flips to March (the best time of year), the NCAA Tournament picture has started to solidify. With just 4 games left in the regular season, Providence sits squarely on the bubble, although with a win on Wednesday night versus Xavier and several bubble teams suffering losses over the weekend, as we sit here on Sunday night Providence would be going dancing were the season to end today. But it doesn’t.
Bracket Matrix currently has the Friars in 82/100 brackets, with their highest seeding being an 8 seed. If you’re not aware of the emerging industry of bracketology allow me to give you a quick primer. What started ~25 years ago as one or two guys at ESPN predicting what the selection committee would do has now evolved into one of the most intensely debated, and closely followed of nascent online industries. There are CBB super fans who track all of the metrics and results that occur in college basketball and publish their own brackets, their are rankings for amateur bracketologists based on how closely their final bracket mirrors the actual one, and of course there are still the big names at places like ESPN, Fox Sports and CBS that publish their predictions (although it has been proven over time these sources are significantly less reliable than some of the lesser known names that grind through this labor of love).
Now that we’ve cleared that up, let’s get back to the Friars. The selection committee looks at a number of factors when evaluating whether a team is going to make the field of 68. I won’t bore you with all of the details about each of those metrics, but they include things like Net Ranking (Providence is currently 55th), KenPom Ranking (53rd), Road Record (3-6), Number of Marquee ‘Quad 1’ Wins (5), Number of Bad Losses (0) and various Strength of Schedule indicators (Providence is average, at best, in these). Phew, don’t you miss the days when we could just use the eye test?!
One of my favorite bracket experts, and one who is always near the top of any Bracketologist leaderboard, that I’ve gotten to know recently is T3 Bracketology. For the purposes of this exercise we’ll use his current bracket breakdown as of Sunday night.
Locks - These teams have already secured their NCAA Tournament berths based on what they’ve done this season so far. Providence is not competing with them, though a win over any of these teams (UConn / Marquette) down the stretch would be enough for the Friars to punch their own ticket.
Almost Locks - Same as above, Providence is not realistically competing with any of these teams for an At Large bid
Should Be In - Now here’s where it gets interesting. Every team in the ‘Should Be In’ category gets in if they just avoid any upsets. Well, we know how college basketball works. Upsets are the name of the game. Providence is directly competing with these teams for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. If you find yourself scrolling the TV over the next 3 weeks and one of these teams pops up, you know how to root.
Bubble - Direct Competitors. Providence needs these teams to lose as many games as possible from now until Selection Sunday while also taking care of their own opponents. For this graphic the ‘Bubble’ is defined as any team that is currently projected to be a 10/11 seed - First 8 teams out of the Tournament (reminder that in the NCAA Tournament seeds 12-16 are reserved for mid / low major conference tournament winners like Vermont, Middle Tennessee State and Yale).
Almost Flat Bubble - All of these teams need to win out to have a chance at the NCAA Tournament and many of them would still need some help with current bubble teams falling out. If the Friars go 2-2 down the stretch these teams aren’t a threat.
< 1% - These teams need a miracle. Not a threat to Providence.
If you’re looking for a full seed list, don’t worry, our buddy T3 has that for you as well!
The Friars, highlighted in orange on the 11 seed line, are currently projected to be one of the Last 4 In. This would mean a Tuesday play in game in Dayton, Ohio against one of the other 11 seeds highlighted above in orange. Now I don’t know about you, but I am desperate for the Friars to avoid the play in game. They’ve overcome so many obstacles this season and to have this season end in a First 4 game in Dayton just feels horrendously anti-climatic (yes, they could certainly win that game but I’d love to avoid that scenario altogether. So, with that context in mind, here are the scenarios for how the remaining 4 games of the regular season, and Big East Tournament need to play out to ensure Providence gets up to a 9/10 seed and make sure Selection Sunday is a proper, Guinness-filled celebration of St. Patrick himself.
The Path:
