Devin Carter by the Numbers

Breaking down DC's All American start to the season

Coming into the season the story around the Providence Friars was the return of the two headed monster of Bryce Hopkins and Devin Carter. How well that dynamic duo played would largely determine the success of Kim English’s first season in Friartown. While Hopkins has largely underwhelmed through the first 5 games of the season (we’ll save that conversation for another day), Carter has exceeded even the loftiest of offseason expectations. The junior guard spent the offseason working with the Providence staff to overhaul his shooting mechanics, and the results are undeniable. The junior guard is averaging 17.0 points (46.9% FG, 32.4% 3PT, 63.6% FT), 7.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. He leads the team is scoring, assists, steals and plays that make you say ‘how the hell did he do that’?!

There’s been more ‘wow’ plays through 20% of the season than I can count, and the analytics back up what the eye test is telling me. Below is a summary of some of Carter’s baseline and advanced statistics. Don’t let the sheer volume of the numbers here scare you, the long and short of it is green = good and red = bad.

That’s a lot of green.

When I look at Carter’s game through the early part of the season I see 3 primary areas where he’s improved, and 2 areas that if he cleans up he’ll have legitimate All American consideration.

The Highlights:

1. Shot Selection

   Carter’s shot selection has been excellent this season. Half of the credit here goes to Kim English and his ‘4 out’ offensive principles but the other half is due to Carter’s improved decision making. He’s making enough threes to keep opposing defenses honest and when he gets a lane, he’s making a concerted effort to get to the rim. Through 5 games this season Carter has only taken 2 (!) midrange jump shots. I can’t even imagine what that fact does to the analytics nerds heart rate, but his season long shot chart is a thing of beauty.

   

   Compared to his shot chart from a season ago which saw 10% of his total field goal attempts come in the midrange zone. For my non math majors out there, that’s a 7% decrease in mid range jump shots. Superb. Many of those attempts are now coming at the rim.

Carter is also getting further into the paint on his drives. The 73 attempts in the paint but not at the rim last year tells me he was settling for a lot of floaters and avoiding contact instead of attacking the basket as he’s done so effectively this season. Carter is taking better, smarter, more efficient shots this season. Simple as that.

2. Three Point Success Rate