Predictions for Every Friar Game of the 2024-25 Season

I can already feel my fiancé getting preemptively pissed at me for ignoring my around the house duties to sit down and be fully consumed by the Friars for 2 hours on a random Wednesday evening. That’s how close the season is folks. We’re weeks, not months, away.

I try not to put too much stock into preseason prediction, if I could truly tell the future I’d be on a beach in Spain and not writing a college basketball blog. However, I do think that if you take an objective eye to your favorite team, and go game by game through the schedule, you can more often than not get a pretty good sense for how the season is going to play out. Now that the date, time and TV schedule for every Friars game of the season has been confirmed, that’s exactly what we’re going to do here. As usual, predicting each game is a fools errand, so we’ll break down the season into groups of 5 games each. Let’s dive in:

The Buy Games:

Monday, November 4th, 7:00 pm vs. Central Connecticut State (Fox Sports 1)

Saturday, November 9th, 6:00 pm vs. Stonehill (Fox Sports 2)

Tuesday, November 12th, 6:30 pm vs. Hampton (Fox Sports 1)

Saturday, November 16th, 5:00 pm vs. Green Bay (Fox Sports 2)

Tuesday, November 19th, 7:00 pm vs. Delaware State (Fox Sports 2)

Analysis: We don’t need to spend a ton of time on these games, the Friars will come out of this stretch at 5-0. If they don’t there will assuredly be panic in the streets, and I can’t say that it’d be unwarranted. Even though Kim English did recently mention that his team is dealing with an array of nagging-but-not-serious injuries, there is no excuse for Providence to drop any of these first 5 matchups.

The highlight of this stretch of games will be Bryce Hopkins making his long awaited return to the AMP, and former lead assistant Ivan Thomas returning to Friartown in his first season as head coach at Hampton.

Predicted Record: 5-0

The Real Season Begins:

Wednesday, November 27th, 5:00 pm vs. Oklahoma (ESPN2)

Thursday, November 28th, 6:00 pm vs. Arizona (ESPN) or Davidson (ESPN2)

Friday, November 29th, time TBA vs. Louisville, Gonzaga, Indiana or West Virginia

Tuesday, December 3rd, 8:30 pm vs. BYU (FS1)

Saturday, December 7th, time TBA at Rhode Island (CBS Sports Network)

Analysis: This is far and away the most important pre-February, 5-game stretch of the season. The difference between the Friars winning and losing their first Battle 4 Atlantis matchup against Oklahoma will likely be the difference of ~40 spots in the strength of schedule metrics come NCAA Tournament time (This year the Friars will be jockeying for seeding instead of desperately trying to stay on the right side of the bubble, but still.) If Providence beats Oklahoma in the opening matchup, they’re likely looking at a Thanksgiving Day matchup against Arizona, and then another quality opponent on Black Friday (chances are it’s Gonzaga or Indiana). This will be the best early season test Providence has had in more than a decade. This is what I wanted to see when I bitched about the cupcake non-conference scheduling for the last 3 seasons. It was worth it!

The Faithful won’t have to guess what this team’s strengths and weaknesses are heading into Big East play this year, we’ll all know clear as day after 3 games in 3 days against genuinely formidable opponents. Last thing to note about this stretch, BYU is going to be an excellent team this year. Sans UConn, the BYU Cougars may be the best team to visit the AMP this season. I’m laughing already thinking about a bunch of mormons making the trek East to interact with our….. uniquely passionate… fanbase. I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Providence to come out of this stretch 5-0, but 3-2 would be a disappointment no matter who the opponents in Atlantis end up being.

Predicted Record: 9-1

The Holiday Run:

Tuesday, December 10th, 8:30 pm at DePaul (FS1)

Saturday, December 14th, 5:00 pm vs. St. Bonaventure (CBSSN) [Mohegan Sun]

Friday, December 20th, 8:00 pm vs. St. John’s (Fox)

Tuesday, December 31st, 6:00 pm vs. Marquette (FS1)

Sunday, January 5th, 2:00 pm at UConn (NBC)

Analysis: I’m going to have to see it to believe it before I can mark the Friars down for a win at the defending back-to-back national champions, but the other 4 games in this stretch are eminently winnable. DePaul will be better with new coach Chris Holtmann, but they’ll still be at or near the bottom of the league, and the Mohegan Sun crowd should be 75% Friar fans on the second Saturday in December. As for the Big East home opener against St John’s and the first game back after Christmas break against Marquette, here’s a little secret for you. The sacred home court advantage that came to define the Program took a major hit last season. There’s probably multiple reasons for that reality (Bryce getting hurt, a redesign of the AMP that moved the student section further from the court, etc.) but it’s a reality nonetheless. The fans, coaches, players, administrators and every other stakeholders of the Providence College Men’s Basketball Programs would be wise to do everything in their power to return the AMP to one of the most difficult places to play in college basketball, and soon. I’ll put my money on the Friars doing just that (or St John’s not be fully locked in on the road 4 days before Christmas, and Marquette struggling to get up for a New Years Eve road game, either way, the Friars should expect to go 4-1 in this stretch of 5.)

Predicted Record: 13-2 (3-1 in Big East)

A Defining Stretch:

Wednesday, January 8th, 8:30 pm vs. Butler (Peacock)

Saturday, January 11th, 5:00 pm vs. Seton Hall (CBS Sports Network)

Tuesday, January 14th, 8:30 pm at Creighton (FS1)

Friday, January 17th, 7:00 pm at Villanova (FS1)

Saturday, January 25th, 12:30 pm vs. Georgetown (Fox)

Analysis: When I look at this stretch of games, I see 4 teams that on paper, are definitively worse than the Friars. However, I also only see 1 team that the Friars swept last season (hi Georgetown), 2 teams that managed to get a season split despite not exactly having overwhelming talent (Seton Hall, Butler) and 1 team that inexplicably swept Providence and kept them out of the NCAA Tournament (Yes, Villanova). That’s a long winded way of me saying that this will be the defining stretch of the season, for me, to see just how much Kim English has improved year over year. No, English won’t be the one out on the court actually taking the shots and making the plays, but he better have his team ready to go during this stretch (he did not in either matchup against Villanova last year). I believe this will be the most telling 5 game stretch of the season in terms of how the fans evaluate our second year head coach. I expect him to pass with flying colors, but Omaha Nebraska is still a brutally tough place to go win a game in January. Give me another 4-1 stretch for the Friars.

(Editor’s Note: the game against Butler will be Providence’s first game of the season that is only available on Peacock. Yes, you must subscribe to Peacock, to be able to watch every Providence game this season. The cheapest subscription package is $6.99 a month but plenty of free trial offers are available.)

Predicted Record: 17-3 (7-2 in Big East)

The Friars Hit The Road:

Tuesday, January 28th, 7:00 pm at Seton Hall (Peacock)

Saturday, February 1, 12:00 pm at St. John’s (CBS Sports Network)

Wednesday, February 5th, 8:30 pm vs. Creighton (FS1)

Saturday, February 8th, 3:00 pm at Butler (Peacock)

Wednesday, February 12th, 8:00 pm vs. Xavier (Peacock)

Analysis: Providence’s road games come in bunches this season, and perhaps no stretch exemplifies that more than the 10 day stretch from January 28th - February 8th which will see the Friars travel to Newark, Madison Square Garden and Indianapolis with a home game against Creighton squeezed in between. I can see things getting a bit off the rails in this stretch, but hopefully Kim English & co. have built a comfortable enough cushion that a 2-3 record in this stretch of 5 doesn’t have the fanbase sweating out yet another season on the NCAA Tournament bubble. It doesn’t help that Providence’s home games in this stretch come against Creighton and Xavier. Creighton is always good for a triple overtime thriller when they come to Providence..

… and I don’t need to remind you all of what happened the last time Sean Miller led his Xavier Musketeers into the AMP.

Predicted Record: 19-6 (9-5 in Big East)

Here Comes March:

Saturday, February 15th, 6:00 pm vs. Villanova (CBS Sports Network)

Wednesday, February 19th, 7:00 pm at Georgetown (FS1)

Tuesday, February 25th, 7:00 pm at Marquette (FS1)

Saturday, March 1st, 12:00 pm vs. UConn (CBS)

Wednesday, March 5th, 6:30 pm vs. DePaul (FS1)

Analysis: This is a stretch that I can see Providence going 4-1 in, but if I’m being honest a 1-4 performance wouldn’t shock me. Providence is not losing to DePaul at home in March. Fair enough. Villanova is all but ready to fire their head coach and the talent disparity between the Wildcats and the Friars is significant, but let me remind you that was the case last year, and Providence still got swept (and blown out twice might I add). If there was ever a game for Cooley to circle on his calendar, it’d be this one, and with Marquette and UConn back to back, you can’t tell me that 1-4 here is impossible. Is it likely? No, but the back half of Providence’s conference schedule is filled with potential landmines, which makes the first 10 games of the Big East slate all the more important. It is simply crucial that the Friars get off to a hot start this season. If I’m being honest with myself I see this stretch finishing at 3-2, maybe one of those unforgivable slip ups does happen, but if its bookended with a win at home against UConn, I’ll take it.

Predicted Record: 22-8 (12-7 in Big East)

The Finale:

Saturday, March 8th, time TBA at Xavier (FS1)

Analysis: It is extremely difficult to go on the road and get a win on the final day of the season. That’s usually the day reserved for senior day celebrations for the home team, and crazy, magical, seemingly unexplainable things always seem to happen on senior day. Also, Xavier is going to be damn good this season and winning inside the Cintas Center is generally a tall ask. Even with a depleted roster last season, Xavier was a Ticket Gaines block away from beating a significantly more talented Friars team.

But I think this year’s group is similarly up for the challenge. They have the talent, albeit on paper, to compete with any team in the Big East, and as a result, any team in the country. They won’t win every game, but they will win (a lot) more than they lose.

Everything about the Program at this moment in time is trending up.

Fan Engagement? All time high

Donations? All time high

Recruiting? At a level we haven’t seen in decades

Strength of Schedule? Significantly improved (!)

Roster Depth (and overall talent)? Significantly improved

It’s time to win some games.

Predicted Record: 23-8 (13-7 in Big East)